Modelling Coastal Vulnerability Index To Sea Level Rise For The East Coast Of Peninsular Malaysia

Abstract

Sea level rise is a global phenomenon that all littoral states, including Malaysia, need to plan for. Thus far sea level rise scenarios have been using global data and scenarios that only depict inundation areas without taking into account socio economic and quality of life. Malaysia is vulnerable to sea level rise particularly areas located on the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia facing the South China Sea where the waves are larger, especially during the monsoon season. It is also our study site covering over 675 km and fifteen districts located along the coast. Models of sea level rise were performed using three sea level rise scenarios: an increase of every 1, 2 and 3 m in areas that have been selected, including major town, industrial areas and estuaries. To obtain a model of sea level rise, ERDAS 2011 and ArcGIS software was used to model Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR) data and identify the low lying inundated area. This study reveals that although sea level rise affect the coastline along the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia, the rise is too slow to make any impact in the near future where by the year 2100 the rise is expected to range from 0.16 to 0.3m only. A rise of one meter in sea level, predicted to occur in the year 2319 and 2585, will only inundate 8% and 15% of Chendering and Kota Bharu respectively. To address the problem of rising sea levels on the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia, this study focuses on developing vulnerability indices on physical, socioeconomic and correlation between both parameters.